The risk of osteoporotic fractures and its associating risk factors according to the FRAX model in the Iranian patients: a follow-up cohort

BACKGROUND The present study is designed to assess the incidence rate of osteoporotic fracture and its risk factors, particularly those used to predict the 10-year risk of osteoporotic fracture in FRAX based on the data gathered through a follow up cohort initiated in 2000. METHODS The present retrospective cohort was conducted on men and women from 40 to 90 years of age enrolled in the IROSTEOPs study. A phone survey was conducted during 2013 and beginning of 2014 to assess the fractures (traumatic/osteoporotic) occurring at the time of inclusion until the date of the telephone survey, its type and mechanism, and the patient's age at the time of accident. Survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier product-limit method was performed with the time of fracture as the study outcome. RESULTS Final study population consisted of 1233 individuals, translated in to 9133 person years. The incidence rate of osteoporotic fracture was reported to be 359.1 cases in every 10,000 person years. The 10-year Kaplan-Meier estimate of any kind of major osteoporotic fractures for all the subcohort population was 10.75%. Osteoporosis (HR = 0.75), Discordance between femoral neck and spine (HR = 1.45), Diabetes (HR = 1.81), IBD (HR = 1.84), immobility more than 90 days (HR = 2.19), and personal history of fracture (HR = 7.75) had a considerable effect on the 10-year risk of major osteoporotic fractures. CONCLUSIONS Adding new clinical risk factors to FRAX® may help improve fracture prediction in the Iranian population.